SARATOGA (BELMONT RACING FESTIVAL) ANALYSIS – 6/7/2024
RACE 1: 8-5-7-4
#8 ROLLING ALONG invades from Canada off a debut run where this son of West Coast finished a game second after contesting the pace. He switches surfaces to dirt and veteran trainer Josie Carroll sports a 22% strike rate going from synthetics to dirt, good for a $2.21 ROI. This gelding also gets Lasix and blinkers, which should keep him razor sharp early.
RACE 2: 9-5-1-4
The prior dirt races from #9 TAPIT SHOES are certainly good enough for him to get serious consideration today. He arrives in this spot fresh off a game score on the weeds and is now a new gelding for his second start at 4 years of age. The pace should be to his liking as he has the tactical speed to lay close and wear them down late going 10 panels.
RACE 3: 5-9-4-14
#5 ADDICTED TO YOU was arguably best last time out when 3rd at 22-1 and we’ll now have to take a fraction of that juicy price. Nonetheless, he is clearly a new horse since joining the barn of Horacio De Paz and figures to pack a late wallop in the lane. This being his second start off a layoff encourages as well.
RACE 4: 8-9-11-4
In a race that’s hard to garner a strong opinion, #8 DEBATE looks like a real contender off an inside trip at 9 panels. The cutback should do him some good, as his best races prior have come sprinting. The pace in here should be contested, and that helps this son of Flatter who should rebound this afternoon.
RACE 5: 6-2-5-3
#6 BRING ME A CHECK is interesting at a price here on a major class drop following a poor run in the Elusive Quality. The ride he got that day was somewhat suspect, as he was in contention before losing ground, seemingly while still having some run. His prior Spa efforts have been rock solid and the drop plus addition of Lasix make him a contender as a longshot.
RACE 6: 6-3-1-9
The 2YO form of #6 SPIRIT PRINCE is good enough to win this, and that assumes he doesn’t even take a step forward today. What this son of Cairo Prince showed last year was versatility, as he has speed but can also rate comfortably in the early stages. That gives jockey Joel Rosario a multitude of options in a spot where he’s likely to be favored.
RACE 7: 3-4-11-6
#3 ROSWELL is a clear alternative to #4 MUNNY’S GOLD, though the latter looms awfully tough to beat on paper. Roswell was a competitive 3rd last out as the favorite at Churchill Downs and we’ve seen the Kentucky dirt form hold up very well around these parts in recent years. She was stuck inside much of the way that day and being a path or two off the rail was likely advantageous.
RACE 8: 3-12-1-6
Bombs away with #3 KUNSHAN BRIDGE, who undoubtedly has to run his best race to contend, but he has some appeal. The race he exits was largely dominated on the front end, he had early trouble that cost him precious positioning, and he’s moving forward on Thorograph sheets. The pace should boil over in here and that’ll help him late as a live longshot.
RACE 9: 6-5-1-10
There’s no point in trying to beat #6 ROSES FOR DEBRA, who was workwomanlike in victory last out at Keeneland as a heavy favorite, despite the morning line maker blowing the line. She is back at the site of her two easiest wins of 2023, and should get a strong pace to run at in the closing stages. At this point it has become expected that she’ll fire her best shot given her consistency.
RACE 10: 7-4-5-6
The pace should really set up well in here for #7 WHITEBEAM, who got involved in a brutal pace last out at Aqueduct. She was run down late by a rival who’ll contest the New York later today and should only move forward second off the layoff this afternoon. The mile is her ideal trip and the favorable pace scenario makes her the horse to beat.
RACE 11: 5-3-2-10
In a skull-busting edition of the New York, #5 AMERICAN SONJA bids for redemption following a runner-up finish here in last year’s Saratoga Oaks Invitational. She ran extremely well that day, pressing a white hot pace that evaporated before staying on to snag the place dough. She arrives in top form for the dangerous barn of Joey O’Brien as she exits a Group 3 score from which the runner-up has already returned to win.
RACE 12: 6-9-4-7
There was enough trouble in the Kentucky Oaks trip of #6 WHERE’S MY RING to give her another shot here. She broke poorly, was stuck inside in traffic, then steadied on the far turn before spinning her wheels late. That was her first try on a sealed racetrack that seems as if it wasn’t to her liking and she now gets a shot to redeem herself with a cleaner run.
BELMONT STAKES RACING FESTIVAL STATS: 10-4-0-0 $38.10
