Should You Bet On The 'Wagerwizard'? (2024)

FAQs

Should you ever bet the moneyline? ›

The answer to this question comes down to your confidence level and risk tolerance. If your analysis tells you a 6.5-point underdog stands a good chance of winning the game outright, bet the moneyline. However, if you think that 6.5-point underdog will be competitive but likely not win, bet the point spread.

The downsides of betting favorites

Since you're taking the lowest risk, you'll also receive the lowest payout. Sometimes, the favorite offers less than half of what the underdog does. And that's assuming you even win your bet. The favorite may be the team most likely to win, but that doesn't mean they'll always win.

Aggressive sports investors might want to bet 3% on a play. Two-percent is a good medium and it allows you to withstand a losing streak while helping to build up your sports investing bankroll. Very aggressive investors might bet 4% or 5% of their bankroll per wager, but this is too risky for most investors.

As such, you should resist the temptation to devote a sizable chunk of your betting bankroll to parlays. Unless you get lucky, parlays lose more often than they win. There's a reason online sportsbooks make so much of their money from parlays.

NFL moneyline betting FAQs

How often does the moneyline favorite win in the NFL? Since 1985, NFL moneyline favorites have won 66.5 percent of the time. Moneyline favorites finished 188-88-1 SU (67.1%) during the 2020 NFL season.

What happens if you bet $100 on a moneyline? If you bet $100 on a moneyline, you might win some money or lose your wager. If the odds for your moneyline bet were +100, you would profit $100 if the team you backed won. If they lose, you are out $100.

Simply put, the greater the odds against a team, the larger the payout will be for anyone who bets on it. For example, 7 to 2 odds mean that for every $2 you wager, you could win $7 if your bet is successful, while 5 to 1 odds mean you could win $5 for every $1 you bet.

Stick to your budget, regardless of wins and losses

By sticking at 3-5% or less of your bankroll per bet, you create the opportunity to maintain (and hopefully grow) your bankroll for much longer. It can be very tempting to double down on any winnings when you're on a hot streak to chase even more rewards.

How much does the average person bet? ›

The most common wagers amount to $10 to $25. Meanwhile, 30% of bettors place $50 or more, and 10% wage over $250.

Enter 4 in the “Number of Games” box. Enter -110 in each game line box (make sure you enter the minus sign)• Click “Calculate”. It will then tell you that the true parlay odds on this bet would be +1228, meaning you should expect a payout of $1,228.33 on a bet amount of $100.

The odds of winning a parlay involving multiple teams or outcomes are much lower than winning a single bet, making it a less valuable option in terms of expected value, which is a measure of the average outcome.

The chances of winning a 3-game parlay depend on the odds of each individual game. However, if we assumed each bet was a coin flip with a 50% chance of winning, the probability of winning all three bets in the parlay would be 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 = 0.125, or 12.5%.

What Does a +200 Money Line Mean? A +200 money line would mean that if you placed a $100 bet, you would win $200. It also tells you that the team is not expected to win, as it is the underdog in the game.

Negative odds don't necessarily mean a lower potential profit, but the profit you make will always be lower than the profit on positive moneylines. Negative odds refer to favored teams. You're more likely to win a negative odds bet than a positive odds bet.

In case of a tie/draw, the bet result is a push and the wager is returned to you.

Vegas' Mean Average Error (or MAE) was 2.2 wins. Essentially, this means that, on average, Vegas is within 2.2 wins in either direction of their projected win line total. This is accurate in the sense that it's close, but it's not accurate in the traditional sense.