SARATOGA – 7/29/22
RACE 1: 2-6-5-1
Nice group of maidens go 9 panels on the main track to kick things off and #2 GOLDEN ALCHEMIST just may have a pace edge on them on the stretchout. He’s bred for more distance and finished with interest in a slow-paced sprint to begin his career. #5 SIDEKICK was supposed to win last time out but was dogged by a slow pace as well. He gets more ground here, which should do him no harm. The concerns are his ice cold trainer and his affinity for the rail, which is not always the place to be on the Saratoga main track. #6 BOLD LOOKER stretches back out in distance off a good runner-up effort last time out at Churchill Downs. The winner of that race was a stakes competitor as a maiden in 2021 and this colt has tons of upside.
RACE 2: 13-7-10-5
Your guess is as good as mine with this off the turf. #13 PHOEBE’S FROSTY probably has the best dirt form and is now in the care of Charlie Baker. He is 21% with new arrivals to his barn on dirt over the last five years, good for a breakeven ROI. #7 LOOKIN GRAND is another Baker trainee and this one has big dirt pedigree on the dam side. The second dam was a stakes placed filly for Mike Hushion and there are multiple dirt winners in the first family. #10 LOZ is dropping in for a tag for the first time and didn’t get a fair shot on dirt in his debut. The blinkers should sharpen him up a bit.
RACE 3: 3-7-6-4
#3 FINGAL’S CAVE has shown she is a very nice NY bred so far in two starts against fellow NY breds. Now she tests deeper waters facing open company, but looks to have a massive pace advantage for the underrated barn of Dave Donk. If jockey Jose Ortiz keeps it simple, she’ll have a big lead on the backstretch. #7 INSIGNIA won impressively last time out in a race that now looks stronger given the 2-3 finishers from it went 1-2 here in yesterday’s opener. This filly overcame a slow pace on debut to finish a strong second then clearly took a step forward at second asking. #6 SPIKED beat a filly who underperformed in Thursday’s first race last time out but showed marked improvement from her promising debut. She now goes 2nd off a layoff and has the speed to be in the mix from the outset.
RACE 4: 4-11-3-10
Quite simply, if #4 BLAME IT ON MARY runs her last race she is unbeatable here. She was a game 2nd in her return to turf for Eddie Barker, sitting just off a supersonic pace before reaching the front and tiring late. She has been most effective on the lead and is quick enough to get clear in here. #11 HAPPY HILL LIL was likely a tad too close to the pace going 7 panels last time out and now returns to the trip that yielded her maiden win on closing day last year. A hot pace would put her in line to capitalize. #3 FLIP MY ID was 5th behind the top two picks last time out and now looks to take another step forward 3rd off a layoff. She has shown increased speed in her last two outings and figures to be a square price in a bulky field today.
RACE 5: 5-10-7-2
After the way an Al Stall trainee won Thursday afternoon, the public seems to know when his horses are ready so tab the tote action on #5 GUT FEELING. This son of Blame drops in class off a trio of modest turf outings in Louisiana and Kentucky. This is a big class drop and he’s hardly facing a robust group. #10 SWEEPING GIANT is the one to beat on a big class drop off the layoff. The concern is why he’s not being given one opportunity against MSW competition and is practically being given away for 40k. His first two races, even as a 2YO, were clearly good enough to win here. #7 SEBARAY is a son of Malibu Moon out of a mare who has produced 4 turf winners. The good thing is this gelding has speed and trainer Ray Handal wanted him to try turf last time out.
RACE 6: 10-7-9-6
#10 BOBBY THE TANK is training well for Chad Brown and draws favorably on the far outside. This colt worked :10 and 1/5 at the OBS March sale earlier this year and is the 4th foal to race out of a winless dam. She has produced two prior winners, so there’s plenty to like. #7 ACOUSTIC AVE is a firster by Maclean’s Music, whose progeny score in their juvenile debuts at a 17% clip. The dam here was a one-time winner, but she is a daughter of multiple NY bred stake winner Mineralogist. This colt worked :10 at the OBS April sale this year. #9 TEN CENT TOWN is the best of the experienced runners, even though that is not saying much. He should improve with experience after a modest effort as the beaten fave on debut.
RACE 7: 9-7-3-5
This is a great opportunity for the well-bred #9 ARTORIUS to prove whether he is stakes caliber. He won a loaded MSW race on Belmont week and the 3rd place finisher has since come right back to break his maiden. The outside draw is no bargain, but this field is loaded with late running types and that will enable this son of Arrogate to get a good early spot just off the pace. #7 CREATIVE MINISTER was a dull 5th in the Belmont, as he never fired despite a comfortable early position. Trainer Kenny McPeek is now backing off and finding a softer spot for him to return to action. His best races would make him impossible to beat, and he is likely capable of staying close enough early to be heard from late. #3 A.P.’S SECRET is dangerous in this field given his early speed and inside post. He was too close to a dead rail at Lone Star last time out and understandably weakened. Whether he truly wants to go 9fs is still up for debate, but he’s a live longshot today.
RACE 8: 4-1-10-11
#4 FAUCI should have won last time out. He nearly overcame a slow pace and massive traffic issues, ending up second beaten less than a length to subsequent repeat winner Artemus Citylimits. This is a fair trip for him given his 5 exacta finishes in 6 tries and he’ll offer value at his morning line. #1 LYRICAL POET has been working with none other than 2021 BC Turf Sprint winner Golden Pal and is a major player from the inside post today. Whether he can withstand the heat he’s sure to get from the opening bell is the question, but he has improved of late and has upside. #10 CHUCK WILLIS is an uninteresting morning line favorite given his best races have come in Canada. He was also very fortunate in two scores down at Gulfstream last year. Rating successfully will be a necessity as he goes out for a barn that briefly broke out of its annual Saratoga slumber last week.
RACE 9: 3-9-1A-4
Many are going to land on #9 BALTASAR in this spot, but it’s unclear how much better he ran than #3 LIFE CHANGER when they met on June 5. The latter had some traffic issues in mid-stretch that kept him from a better finish and now gets a rider upgrade to Joel Rosario. Trainer John Terranova also has 2 wins in the last four race cards. The aforementioned Baltasar is the one to beat given his vast improvement since joining the barn of Horacio De Paz. He draws well on the outside and will just have to overcome a negative pace setup here with so much speed signed up. #1A NICHOLAS JAMES is very fast and should be in the mix from the start. Trainer Pat Reynolds tried him going long on the lawn last time out and he was ineffective, but he faced a tough bunch that day and is now back at his preferred trip on his preferred surface.
RACE 10: 5-10-4-12
It would suffice to say that the rider switch that #5 MORE MANGO is getting here is significant. With all due respect to Gary Richards, the 2021 Saratotga leading jockey is aboard today and this mare’s last race was solid. She angled out sharply and lost some momentum before putting in a solid bid to finish 4th against similar foes. The pace setup will be there for her today and she has improved by leaps and bounds since coming back from the layoff. #10 BUILT DIFFERENT faced much tougher last time out for a high percentage barn. She was closer to the pace than normal that day and should be once again given the fast workout on the Jersey Shore a week ago. Everyone will be on #5 ROSEMARY POTATOES today off of her troubled trip last time out at Belmont. She had horrible traffic issues and clearly should have won that race. A cleaner trip is in the offing today and she is a major player
